Here is Daring Fireball’s John Gruber’s take on yesterday’s speculations on whether Apple is working on a standalone TV set or not:

Carl Icahn in his open letter to Tim Cook:

Apple Television Set – after many years of rumors as part of Apple’s push into television and as we referenced previously, we expect in FY 2016 Apple will sell 55” and 65” ultra high definition television sets.

In addition to an Ultra High Definition television set, we expect Apple to launch a related suite of tiered products and services, including a “skinny bundle” of pay-tv channels (partnered with various media companies) and an updated Apple TV microconsole.

Daisuke Wakabayashi for WSJ:

Investor Carl Icahn said he expects Apple Inc. to introduce an ultra-high-definition television in 2016. But after nearly a decade of research, Apple quietly shelved plans to make such a set more than a year ago, according to people familiar with the matter.

John Gruber on his blog:

One way to read it is that Apple gave Wakabayashi this scoop in order to throw cold water on Icahn’s speculation — they’re not doing a TV set and they want everyone know it, so that when they announce a new Apple TV box at WWDC next month (I know nothing about that other than that it’s widely rumored) everyone will understand that there is no TV set coming next year to wait for.

Making boxes that connect to TVs — like Apple TV as it stands today — that makes sense to me. Making actual TV sets, though, I’ve long been skeptical about. Years ago, I thought, “Why should Apple settle for selling a $100 box connected to a $2000 TV instead of just selling the $2000 TV set with the box built in?” The problem, though, is that TV set prices have dropped dramatically, and people don’t replace their TV sets that frequently. The only way to build a large TV-based platform is to make boxes that connect to the TV sets people already own. There has to be a standalone Apple TV box. In theory, Apple could make an actual TV set, too, but I’m unconvinced that makes strategic sense.

Also read: Everything you want to know about Apple TV 4

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Popular activist investor Carl Icahn recently published an open letter to Tim Cook, asking for an increased share buyback from the company. And among other products mentioned in the letter, he points to an earlier discussion regarding the possibility of Apple releasing its own television set in 2016.

Apple has long time ago stated that they weren’t interested in a HDTV lineup since their upgrade cycles are pretty long. But Icahn says that the ultraHD TV will replace the normal HDTV by 2016, and this upgrade cycle would be a huge opportunity for Apple to step into the television business.

[..]we believe UltraHD’s (ultra-high-definition television) superior picture quality in comparison to regular HD will drive a major TV replacement cycle as the price gap between them narrows.

It should also be noted that Reed Hastings, CEO of Netflix, has referenced UltraHD as a major catalyst for Netflix going forward, and while this is true for Netflix, we believe it is also true for Apple.

Against the backdrop of this replacement cycle, FY 2016 represents an opportune time to introduce an UltraHD TV set.

Icahn forecasts that the Apple TV set would be sized between 55 and 65 inches, and be priced around $1500 (remember this Best Buy survey from 2012?). He even predicts that the TV set will sell about 12 million units in 2016 and more than double that in 2017.

He also tries to persuade Cook into the idea by citing the huge success of iTunes Store and how users would be able to enjoy UltraHD movies from iTunes through such high resolution screens.

We have been hearing rumors about the Apple standalone TV set for more than four years now, and earlier this year we received some contrasting reports on its development status. You can read all about the Apple’s HDTV here.

It is also worth remembering that rumors of an UltraHD TV from Apple filled the news in early 2013.

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